The International Monetary Fund, IMF, in its 2026 Article IV Consultation Report, may have validated earlier warning by Peter Obi on Nigeria's bloating debt in the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has cautioned Nigeria against bloating foreign debt that could impair the country's financial status.

The IMF, in its 2026 Article IV Consultation Report released last Tuesday, warned the public external debt of Nigeria could balloon over $20 billion, rising to $72.6 billion by 2027. The Fund noted that election-year spending pressures could accelerate the country’s borrowing needs even higher.

The Fund revealed a sharp upward surged for Nigeria’s debt in the next two years. The report showed that Nigeria’s public external debt is expected to increase from $51.9 billion in 2025 to $66.5 billion in 2026, and then rise further to $72.6 billion in 2027. The perpetual surge represents nearly a 40 per cent increase within two years, indicating a rapid accumulation of foreign obligations.

The IMF warned that a combination of rising poverty, worsening food insecurity, and increased government spending towards the 2027 presidential election, could widen fiscal deficits and force the government to borrow more.

The Fund explained that “spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the non-up to the elections could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs."

The IMF may have validated the earlier warning of Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, for the 2027 general elections, in which he berated President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, over escalating Nigeria's debt to about N200 trillion. Obi chided the Tinubu administration over imprudent borrowing, and an increase of over N100 trillion debt in three years, in juxtaposition to the N49 trillion debt in the 8 years of the Buhari administration.